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  2nd Quarter Market Commentary Clarity in the Midst of Crisis  Getting clarity in the midst of confusion is difficult. In each crisis, I have experienced it is always considered one of the worst ever. This crisis is no different in that respect. In no way do I want to convey that this is not a serious issue we are dealing with. It is serious and unprecedented. Our thoughts and prayers go out to all who are impacted which is just about all of us. I have no doubt however that we wil

March 2020 Economic Update The major news outlets love the superlatives so you will hear true statements such as “worst week since 2008…” “Biggest single day point decline for the Dow in history . . .” “Largest dollar value of stocks ever traded in a single day . . .” (Friday $986 trillion). All of these are meant to grab your attention and cause fear and consternation.

February 2020 Economic Update In our last update in early January, we talked about the potential for good growth in 2020 but with a possible ‘rockier road ahead.’ I certainly did not anticipate the significant new virus threatening a global epidemic, but these are the types of things that cannot be predicted and do happen. The Coronavirus could be the catalyst for a correction to the downside from the record highs we have been experiencing in the equity markets and may open some opportunities

There was one surprise since our last update, Distracted Drivers; We managed to get further on the China Trade deal than I anticipated. However, it remains to be seen how or if all the details will be acted upon. when this news is combined with strong holiday retail sales, the market moved steadily higher into the end of 2019. The danger in such a strong year is overconfidence.

The average investor gets distracted by external headlines week after week. Their eyes wander from long term fundamentals to the next shiny news item or the latest monthly or weekly economic numbers.

Since the recession of 2007- 2009 we have seen a constant stream of gloom and doom.  Many argue that bull markets die of old age, but I have never known that to be the case. Had investors listened and traded out of the equity market they would have missed tremendous opportunities for growth. As always, we recommend selecting a long-term strategy that you are personally comfortable with and sticking with it through the inevitable ups and downs in the market.

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We recognize the risks and yet remain cautiously optimistic as we head into earnings season. We expect earnings to be a bit of a mixed bag which will concern many market participants more than it will concern us as we focus on longer-term developments. As Judy Garland and her entourage wandered through the dark forest they perceived dangers that nearly overcame them but were they real or perceived?